$AMZN – Back of the Bar Napkin Valuation

Of course it will be wrong but let’s take (generous) go at it.


Revenue CAGR for 10 years 17% (matches 2015 H1)

Net Margin in year 10 (up from the current .5% and otherwise completely pulled out of my ass) 3%

P/E at Year 10 30X

NPV discount rate 8%

2025 Estimated Net Income $9.87B

Market Cap at 30X $296.1B

NPV of Market Cap $137.2B

Present Fair Value of Stock $294.


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