George Soros developed theory on market cycles and sentiment where he describes what he calls “reflexivity.” I’m interested in understanding the trend of where traders and investors think we are on this scale regardless of their trade discipline. I plan to run a new poll every week starting on Fridays and ending on Thursdays of each week. Then I’ll plot the results against the $SPX.
It may take a few months to get the sample sizes meaningful so early results might be weak gauges. But I plan to keep doing it for a while to see if it catches on.
So, regardless of the the folly you might think of this. Please vote. I’m looking to establish a long term trend to gauge shifts in market sentiment.
I’ll put out a reminder on Twitter and Stockstwits.
A few things about the poll
1 – The system tries to let only one vote per poll (but this can be gamed.) Please don’t vote more than once.
2 – The poll is completely anonymous if you’re worried about trolls on Twitter, etc. giving you crap about your views.
3 – Don’t kill yourselves trying to come up with a correct answer. There isn’t one.
4 – Would love for you to share this with your friends.
5 – Thanks for voting.
Below are the market stages as Soros describes them. I have included a few in between levels for those how can’t quite decide. Please select one.